The 2025 U.S. holiday shopping season is forecast to generate $253.4 billion in online sales, marking a 5.3% year-over-year increase, according to new data from Adobe Analytics. The report draws insights from over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites and more than 100 million SKUs across 18 product categories, giving it one of the most comprehensive views of consumer behavior online.
Adobe predicts that Cyber Monday will again lead the season with $14.2 billion in sales, up 6.3% year-over-year, while Black Friday is expected to see an 8.3% jump to $11.7 billion. Thanksgiving Day sales are also projected to rise 4.9% to $6.4 billion, as consumers continue shopping earlier than ever.
Discounts will play a key role in fueling spending, with markdowns averaging 28% off listed prices. Other factors driving growth include the surge in AI-assisted shopping, increased purchases from mobile devices, and the growing popularity of buy now, pay later (BNPL) services.
AI Shopping Booms 520%
Generative AI is emerging as a major force this year, with AI traffic to retail sites expected to surge 520% year-over-year, peaking in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving. This follows last year’s explosive 1,300% rise in AI-driven shopping traffic.
Adobe’s survey of 5,000 U.S. consumers found that:
- 53% plan to use AI tools for research before purchases,
- 40% for recommendations,
- 36% for finding deals, and
- 30% for gift inspiration.
AI is expected to be most heavily used in toys, electronics, jewelry, and personal care categories.
Mobile and BNPL Drive Record Sales
Mobile devices will account for a record 56.1% of online spending this holiday season, up from 54.5% in 2024 and 51.1% in 2023. The rise reflects improved shopping experiences on larger-screen smartphones and optimized e-commerce sites.
Meanwhile, buy now, pay later (BNPL) services are projected to drive $20.2 billion in online spending, an 11% increase from 2024. Cyber Monday alone could set a new BNPL milestone with $1.04 billion in transactions.
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Social Media and Category Insights
Social media advertising is also expected to play a bigger role this year, driving a 51% increase in online revenue, up sharply from just 5% growth in 2024.
The top spending categories this holiday season are:
- Electronics: $57.5 billion (up 4% YoY)
- Apparel: $47.6 billion (up 4.4% YoY)
- Furniture: $31.1 billion (up 6.5% YoY)
With deeper discounts, smarter AI tools, and seamless mobile and BNPL options, the 2025 holiday shopping season is shaping up to be one of the most digitally driven yet.
